Menhaden industry blames rough 2025 weather for missed quota as ASMFC decision nears
The American Small Pelagics Network says gale-warning days ran 53 percent above the 10-year average from August to December 2025 and asks managers to wait for more science. Conservation groups read the shortfall as a sign of a weaker forage population. The numbers are the industry group’s own analysis.
A November 10, 2026 Saving Seafood post, which excerpts a National Fisherman article, reports that the commercial menhaden sector is pushing back on a reading of its 2025 landings. Lower Atlantic menhaden landings in 2025 have raised concern among conservation groups about the forage population. The American Small Pelagics Network (ASPN) says weather, not abundance, may explain why the fishery did not reach its 2025 catch limit.
In a November 8 release, ASPN cited its own analysis of National Weather Service warnings and NOAA buoy records. Per the post, days under gale-or-stronger warnings from August through December 2025 averaged 53 percent above the preceding 10-year average across 11 coastal forecast zones, from the Virginia-North Carolina border to the western New York Bight. Hours under those warnings rose 63 percent, and days with small craft advisories or stronger were 20 percent above average.
ASPN notes those months overlap the southward menhaden migration, when boats need workable conditions to reach schools. The group urges managers to wait for additional research before imposing further restrictions.
What this does and does not show: the figures are an industry group’s analysis relayed by a trade outlet, and we have not reviewed the underlying data. A rough season can lower landings without saying anything about how many fish are in the water, and the reverse also holds. Conservation groups cited in the post read the shortfall differently. The excerpt we reviewed is cut off, so the full National Fisherman article may contain more.
For anglers, the stakes are bait: menhaden schools drive the fall striped bass and bluefish bite along the coast. The Atlantic Menhaden Management Board is expected to set 2027-2029 specifications at the ASMFC November 2026 meeting; see our meeting item for the posted materials, and rely on ASMFC for the controlling agenda and outcome.
On the water: Rules and conditions can change quickly. Confirm current regulations and official marine forecasts for your exact trip.